Hello everyone! Happy new year. It’s been a long time since you heard from me. I took a “summer” break over six months ago, needing a physical and mental tune up. The one clear insight that came from that is how easy it is to get out of the habit of connecting via this blog and Twitter. Right now, I’m feeling the way I feel on the first day of revisiting France – a foreigner with very rusty language skills and a bad case of jet-lag.
But if there were ever a day to start fresh, it’s today. I went back to my post of a year ago to check what I wrote then about 2011. Not too bad when it comes to predictions – though I never seem to get it quite right about Facebook, so I’m going to stop trying there. Anyway, here they are:
2011
1. A roller-coaster economy, with a lack of certainty pervading all public and private decision making. Mood swings from cheery optimism to gloom and doom. All that is certain is that there will be a strong demand for any services that promise to reduce uncertainty.
2. Mounting anger from the bottom about the widening income gap and the lack of accountability of the financial sector. A loose coalition of right and left united in their disdain for Washington and their sense of hopelessness. Foreclosures will see another upswing and the housing market will see another dip, especially in areas that had not seen much damage until now.
3. Focus on local, not just of the green “locavore” variety, but more broadly to include spending money where you live. And this will include mounting opposition to military spending on the grounds that the money could best be used domestically.
4. Facebook fatigue and the splintering of social media into special interest groups.
5. Continuing adoption of values that emphasize simplicity, self-reliance and frugality.
No market research predictions here. There are several other people doing a great job predicting how the industry will go.
Ever the fool to rush in, here are my predictions for the coming year.
2012
1. The word that keeps coming to my mind is “tangible”. People will increasingly value what they can touch and understand. The more life moves “into the cloud”, the more value will be attached to real objects and activities. Vinyl records are increasing in popularity. Jobs that have a real outcome (plumbing, engineering, etc.) outrank those that involve pushing paper around.
2. Mitt Romney will win the election, paving the way for Hilary Clinton in 2016.
3. The housing market will bottom out and see an upturn in the areas that suffered the greatest losses, like Arizona and Florida.
4. Intergenerational hostility will increase as boomers and seniors fight to hang on to entitlements, while younger people cope with stagnating wages, high unemployment and rising costs.
5. The Cubs will win the World Series. (Kidding… or am I?)
Of course, if certain people are right, we won’t be here after 12/12/12. But let’s hope they are wrong. Personally, I hope your coming year is free of any “bad stuff”. Given what we have experienced recently, I’ll take that. Anything “good” is an extra blessing.
